Last week, Facebook turned ten. Most of us know the story: in 2004, Harvard student Mark Zuckerberg created an online directory of fellow students. A mass email shared the link, and the first 1,200 members joined within 24 hours. A social network was born. Mark and his friends expanded quickly. Ten years later, the figures are staggering: 1.23 billion monthly active users worldwide, including 757 million who use Facebook daily. Yet growth appears to be losing momentum.
Ten years after its launch, Facebook seems to be approaching the limits of its growth. It is promoting internet access in developing countries while making its existing platform increasingly commercial. That is also the problem: too much commercial activity can undermine a social network. When advertising dominates while friends’ updates appear selectively, frustration grows. Facebook is caught between user experience and shareholder expectations. It returns to a familiar revenue model, advertising, but packages it more cleverly. We have become used to sponsored updates, irritating as they may be. Behind the scenes, the platform also decides whose updates we see. Follow a company and you may not see all its posts. Businesses increasingly pay to reach followers: the more they spend, the more people see their updates, with little control otherwise.
Facebook’s revenge
Users cannot be sure their friends see every post either. The platform makes that selection too. In this author’s view, commercial incentives influence it: frequent users are more valuable, and the system rewards activity with visibility. Less active users may find their posts reach fewer friends, which can feel like Facebook taking “revenge”.
To me, this marks the end of a social era. Ten years after its creation, Facebook has become primarily a commercial network. Younger people are increasingly looking elsewhere. I suspect older users may eventually follow. Which platform might replace it? Time will tell, but in 2014 Pinterest, Instagram, Snapchat and Google+ all look like candidates. Companies would do well to include other platforms in their strategies so they can build lasting relationships with fans, regardless of Facebook’s preferences.
Sabine
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